Monday, January 18, 2010
Forex education is crucial for beginners.
BabyPips.com’s School of Pipsology is designed to help you acquire the skills, knowledge, and abilities to become a successful trader in the foreign exchange market. Our definition of a successful trader is having the ability to do three things:
Make pips
Keep pips
Repeat
If you can repeatedly do these three things, then you're on your way! But it's no cakewalk.
Remember when you attended grade school? No? Well, according to our memories, here's how it worked.
You start schooling at the age of five and enter Kindergarten. The next year you enter 1st Grade. If you pass, the next year you enter 2nd Grade, and so on, all the way up to the 12th Grade. Depending on what grade you're in, you'd attend one of three schools:
Elementary school (Kindergarten - 5th grade)
Middle school (6th grade - 8th grade)
High school (9th grade - 12th grade)
This is how our lessons are broken apart, so you can relive the past and also be able to learn and study forex trading techniques at your own pace – but our high school goes beyond the 12th grade!
But there's more!
Learning doesn't end in high school!
If you've done well throughout grade school, you get a full scholarship to our college! All expenses paid and we won't even require you to fill out any applications or write essays. What a deal!
Our curriculum here at the School of Pipsology will make a bold attempt to cover all aspects of forex trading. You will learn how to identify trading opportunities, how to time the market (aka smart guessing), and when to take profits or close a trade.
But that's not all folks.
You will also learn how to predict the future and never have a losing trade.
Yeah right. In your dreams pal.
But there is plenty more to learn and you'll just have to see for yourself!
Pivot Point Trading
You are going to love this lesson. Using pivot points as a trading strategy has been around for a long time and was originally used by floor traders. This was a nice simple way for floor traders to have some idea of where the market was heading during the course of the day with only a few simple calculations.
The pivot point is the level at which the market direction changes for the day. Using some simple arithmetic and the previous days high, low and close, a series of points are derived. These points can be critical support and resistance levels. The pivot level, support and resistance levels calculated from that are collectively known as pivot levels.
Every day the market you are following has an open, high, low and a close for the day (some markets like forex are 24 hours but generally use 5pm EST as the open and close). This information basically contains all the data you need to use pivot points.
The reason pivot points are so popular is that they are predictive as opposed to lagging. You use the information of the previous day to calculate potential turning points for the day you are about to trade (present day).
Because so many traders follow pivot points you will often find that the market reacts at these levels. This gives you an opportunity to trade.
Rollovers in Forex
Even though the mighty US dominates many markets, most of Spot Forex is still traded through London in Great Britain. So for our next description we shall use London time. Most deals in Forex are done as Spot deals. Spot deals are nearly always due for settlement two business days later. This is referred to as the value date or delivery date. On that date the counter parties theoretically take delivery of the currency they have sold or bought.
In Spot FX the majority of the time the end of the business day is 21:59 (London time). Any positions still open at this time are automatically rolled over to the next business day, which again finishes at 21:59.
This is necessary to avoid the actual delivery of the currency. As Spot FX is predominantly speculative most of the time the traders never wish to actually take delivery of the currency. They will instruct the brokerage to always rollover their position.
Many of the brokers nowadays do this automatically and it will be in their policies and procedures. The act of rolling the currency pair over is known as tom.next, which stands for tomorrow and the next day.
Just to go over this again, your broker will automatically rollover your position unless you instruct him that you actually want delivery of the currency. Another point noting is that most leveraged accounts are unable to actually deliver the currency as there is insufficient capital there to cover the transaction.
Remember that if you are trading on margin, you have in effect got a loan from your broker for the amount you are trading. If you had a 1 lot position you broker has advanced you the $100,000 even though you did not actually have $100,000. The broker will normally charge you the interest differential between the two currencies if you rollover your position. This normally only happens if you have rolled over the position and not if you open and close the position within the same business day.
To calculate the broker's interest he will normally close your position at the end of the business day and again reopen a new position almost simultaneously. You open a 1 lot ($100,000) EUR/USD position on Monday 15th at 11:00 at an exchange rate of 0.9950.
During the day the rate fluctuates and at 22:00 the rate is 0.9975. The broker closes your position and reopens a new position with a different value date. The new position was opened at 0.9976 - a 1 pip difference. The 1 pip deference reflects the difference in interest rates between the US Dollar and the Euro.
In our example your are long Euro and short US Dollar. As the US Dollar in the example has a higher interest rate than the Euro you pay the premium of 1 pip.
Now the good news. If you had the reverse position and you were short Euros and long US Dollars you would gain the interest differential of 1 pip. If the first named currency has an overnight interest rate lower than the second currency then you will pay that interest differential if you bought that currency. If the first named currency has a higher interest rate than the second currency then you will gain the interest differential.
To simplify the above. If you are long (bought) a particular currency and that currency has a higher overnight interest rate you will gain. If you are short (sold) the currency with a higher overnight interest rate then you will lose the difference.
I would like to emphasise here that although we are going a little in-depth to explain how all this works, your broker will calculate all this for you. The purpose of this article is just to give you an overview of how the forex market works.
Put two rookie traders in front of the screen, provide them with your best high-probability set-up, and for good measure, have each one take the opposite side of the trade. More than likely, both will wind up losing money. However, if you take two pros and have them trade in the opposite direction of each other, quite frequently both traders will wind up making money - despite the seeming contradiction of the premise. What's the difference? What is the most important factor separating the seasoned traders from the amateurs? The answer is money management.
Like dieting and working out, money management is something that most traders pay lip service to, but few practice in real life. The reason is simple: just like eating healthy and staying fit, money management can seem like a burdensome, unpleasant activity. It forces traders to constantly monitor their positions and to take necessary losses, and few people like to do that. However, as Figure 1 proves, loss-taking is crucial to long-term trading success.
Amount of Equity Lost
Amount of Return Necessary to Restore to Original Equity Value
25%
33%
50%
100%
75%
400%
90%
1000%
Figure 1 - This table shows just how difficult it is to recover from a debilitating loss.
Note that a trader would have to earn 100% on his or her capital - a feat accomplished by less than 1% of traders worldwide - just to break even on an account with a 50% loss. At 75% drawdown, the trader must quadruple his or her account just to bring it back to its original equity - truly a Herculean task!
The Big One
Although most traders are familiar with the figures above, they are inevitably ignored. Trading books are littered with stories of traders losing one, two, even five years' worth of profits in a single trade gone terribly wrong. Typically, the runaway loss is a result of sloppy money management, with no hard stops and lots of average downs into the longs and average ups into the shorts. Above all, the runaway loss is due simply to a loss of discipline.
Most traders begin their trading career, whether consciously or subconsciously, visualizing "The Big One" - the one trade that will make them millions and allow them to retire young and live carefree for the rest of their lives. In FX, this fantasy is further reinforced by the folklore of the markets. Who can forget the time that George Soros "broke the Bank of England" by shorting the pound and walked away with a cool $1-billion profit in a single day? But the cold hard truth for most retail traders is that, instead of experiencing the "Big Win", most traders fall victim to just one "Big Loss" that can knock them out of the game forever.
Learning Tough Lessons
Traders can avoid this fate by controlling their risks through stop losses. In Jack Schwager's famous book "Market Wizards" (1989), day trader and trend follower Larry Hite offers this practical advice: "Never risk more than 1% of total equity on any trade. By only risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade." This is a very good approach. A trader can be wrong 20 times in a row and still have 80% of his or her equity left.
The reality is that very few traders have the discipline to practice this method consistently. Not unlike a child who learns not to touch a hot stove only after being burned once or twice, most traders can only absorb the lessons of risk discipline through the harsh experience of monetary loss. This is the most important reason why traders should use only their speculative capital when first entering the forex market. When novices ask how much money they should begin trading with, one seasoned trader says: "Choose a number that will not materially impact your life if you were to lose it completely. Now subdivide that number by five because your first few attempts at trading will most likely end up in blow out." This too is very sage advice, and it is well worth following for anyone considering trading FX.
Money Management Styles
Generally speaking, there are two ways to practice successful money management. A trader can take many frequent small stops and try to harvest profits from the few large winning trades, or a trader can choose to go for many small squirrel-like gains and take infrequent but large stops in the hope the many small profits will outweigh the few large losses. The first method generates many minor instances of psychological pain, but it produces a few major moments of ecstasy. On the other hand, the second strategy offers many minor instances of joy, but at the expense of experiencing a few very nasty psychological hits. With this wide-stop approach, it is not unusual to lose a week or even a month's worth of profits in one or two trades. (For further reading, see Introduction To Types Of Trading: Swing Trades.)
To a large extent, the method you choose depends on your personality; it is part of the process of discovery for each trader. One of the great benefits of the FX market is that it can accommodate both styles equally, without any additional cost to the retail trader. Since FX is a spread-based market, the cost of each transaction is the same, regardless of the size of any given trader's position.
For example, in EUR/USD, most traders would encounter a 3 pip spread equal to the cost of 3/100th of 1% of the underlying position. This cost will be uniform, in percentage terms, whether the trader wants to deal in 100-unit lots or one million-unit lots of the currency. For example, if the trader wanted to use 10,000-unit lots, the spread would amount to $3, but for the same trade using only 100-unit lots, the spread would be a mere $0.03. Contrast that with the stock market where, for example, a commission on 100 shares or 1,000 shares of a $20 stock may be fixed at $40, making the effective cost of transaction 2% in the case of 100 shares, but only 0.2% in the case of 1,000 shares. This type of variability makes it very hard for smaller traders in the equity market to scale into positions, as commissions heavily skew costs against them. However, FX traders have the benefit of uniform pricing and can practice any style of money management they choose without concern about variable transaction costs.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Forex Trading-How Can Individual Investors Benefit?
Indeed large multinational and individual banks and other major financial institutions have dominated FX trading (also known as Forex trading), but there is a paradigm change in the nature and type of investing. According to one estimate, in the new millennium, there are over 6 million online investment accounts, up from 1.5 million in 1997. As a result, start-up firms now compete directly with financial institutions to serve investors in the new technologically driven economy, and the clear winner is the customer. The competition between the brick and mortar institutions and the Internet-based companies has dramatically lowered the costs of investing, and empowered the individual investor to take control of their own investment strategy in Forex trading.
We know Forex trading is direct access trading of currencies. In the past, foreign exchange trading was limited to large banks and institutional traders but recent advancements in technology have allowed small traders to take advantage of the many benefits of Forex trading using online trading platforms to trade. Virtually Forex trading is done 24 hours day and almost 5 ? days of a week. In the recent times, online trading has revolutionized the currency markets by making it accessible to the small and medium sized investor.
The Forex trading is perhaps the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average turnover of approximately $1.5 trillion. Foreign Exchange is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. The world's currencies are on a floating exchange rate and are always traded in pairs, for example EUR/USD or USD/JPY or USD/INR etc.
In the new millennium, the Forex trading has become accessible for an individual investor or small group of investors. In the current scenario, investors reap many benefits from Forex trading than stock market, e-mini futures and such other trading. Today mostly traders are choosing Forex trading than stock trading because there are approximately 4,500 stocks listed on the New York Stock exchange. Another 3,500 are listed on the NASDAQ. In spot Forex trading, you have 4 major markets, 24 hours a day 5.5 days a week. If you are so inclined, you have approximately 34 second-tier currencies to look at in your spare time. You can concentrate on the major forex and can find your trade. When you are investing in forex you can spend your afternoon on the golf course or with your spouse watching movie or celebrating holidays-in short it is easy and hassle free than stock/future market.
Not only is it an accessible, easy and less capital-intensive business opportunity, but it is much more cost efficient too to invest in the Forex market, in terms of both commissions and transaction fees. Generally, commissions for stock trades range from a low of $7.95-$29.95 per trade with on-line brokers to over $100 per trade with traditional brokers. Opposite to that, typically stock commissions are directly related to the level of service offered by the broker. At the high end, traditional brokers offer full access to research, analyst stock recommendations, etc. In contrast, on-line Forex brokers charge significantly lower commission and transaction fees.
The forex market is what is called an international exchange currency market, where currencies are exchanged on a daily basis. There are five forex market centers around the world — New York, London, Tokyo, Frankfurt and Zurich. One does not need to be on the trading floor, so to speak to be involved in the forex market. Today, forex trading can be done from home on a computer.
The forex market itself is basically a worldwide connection of traders, who make investment moves based on the price of currencies, or their values relative to other currencies. These traders constantly negotiate prices with other traders resulting in the fluctuation or movement of a currency's value. The value of a currency on the forex market also corresponds with supply. If there is greater demand for the Euro, let's say, then there will be less supply of it on the forex market, which means, in time, it will make a Euro more valuable compared to let's say the dollar. In short, in this forex market situation, one Euro would yield more dollars, subsequently weakening the dollar as well. Analyzing the forex market's fluctuations allows investors to make predictions on how a currency will move in relation to another currency. They then can make predictions and buy and sell currency accordingly.
While some people view the forex market as a place to see what their exchange rate will be when they travel abroad, others view it as an opportunity to make great gains in their financial planning and future.
Trading the Forex market has become very popular in the last years. Why is it that traders around the world see the Forex market as an investment opportunity? We will try to answer this question in this article. Also we will discuss come differences between the Forex market, the stocks market and the futures market.
Some of the benefits of trading the Forex market are:
Superior liquidity.
Liquidity is what really makes the Forex market different from other markets. The Forex market is by far the most liquid financial market in the world with nearly 2 trillion dollars traded everyday. This ensures price stability and better trade execution. Allowing traders to open and close transactions with ease. Also such a tremendous volume makes it hard to manipulate the market in an extended manner.
24hr Market.
This one is also one of the greatest advantages of trading Forex. It is an around the click market, the market opens on Sunday at 3:00 pm EST when New Zealand begins operations, and closes on Friday at 5:00 pm EST when San Francisco terminates operations. There are transactions in practically every time zone, allowing active traders to choose at what time to trade.
Leverage trading.
Trading the Forex Market offers a greater buying power than many other markets. Some Forex brokers offer leverage up to 400:1, allowing traders to have only 0.25% in margin of the total investment. For instance, a trader using 100:1 means that to have a US$100,000 position, only US$1,000 are needed on margin to be able to open that position.
Low Transaction costs.
Almost all brokers offer commission free trading. The only cost traders incur in any transaction is the spread (difference between the buy and sell price of each currency pair). This spread could be as low as 1 pip (the minimum increment in any currency pair) in some pairs.
Low minimum investment.
The Forex market requires less capital to start trading than any other markets. The initial investment could go as low as $300 USD, depending on leverage offered by the broker. This is a great advantage since Forex traders are able to keep their risk investment to the lowest level.
Specialized trading.
The liquidity of the market allows us to focus on just a few instruments (or currency pairs) as our main investments (85% of all trading transactions are made on the seven major currencies). Allowing us to monitor, and at the end get to know each instrument better.
Trading from anywhere.
If you do a lot of traveling, you can trade from anywhere in the world just having an internet connection.
Some of the most important differences between the Forex market and other markets are explained below.
Forex market vs. Equity markets
Liquidity
FX market: Near two trillion dollars of daily volume.
Equity market: Around 200 billion on a daily basis.
Trading hours
FX market: 24hr market, 5.5 days a week.
Equity market: Monday through Friday from 8:30 EST to 5:00 EST.
Profit potential
FX market: In both, rising and falling markets.
Equity market: Most traders/investor profit only from rising markets.
Transaction costs
FX market: Commission free and tight spreads.
Equity market: High Commissions and transaction fees.
Buying power
FX market: Leverage up to 400:1.
Equity market: Leverage from 2:1 to 4:1.
Specialization
FX market: most volume (85%) is made on major currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD and AUD.)
Equity market: More than 40,000 stocks to choose from.
Forex market vs. Futures market
Liquidity
FX Market: Near two trillion dollars of daily volume.
Futures market: Around 400 billion dollars on a daily basis.
Transaction costs
FX market: Commission free and tight spreads.
Futures market: High commissions fees.
Margin
FX market: Fixed rate of margin on every position.
Futures market: Different levels of margin on overnight positions than day time positions.
Trade execution
FX market: Instantaneous execution.
Futures market: Inconsistent execution.
All this makes the Forex market very attractive to investors and traders. But I need to make something clear, although the benefits of trading the Forex market are notorious; it is still difficult to make a successful career trading the Forex market. It requires a lot of education, discipline, commitment and patience, as any other market.